March 1
MY - 4Q2009 unemployment rate
CH - Feb10 PMI manufacturing data
JP - Jan10 jobless rate
EU - Jan10 unemployment data, Feb10 CPI estimate
US - Dec09 ISM manufacturing index and personal income outlay

March 2
AU - RBA cash target rate (3.75% currently)
SG - Feb10 PMI, Electronic Sector Index
TH - Feb10 CPI
KR - Feb10 CPI

March 3
AU - 4Q2009 GDP
HK - Feb10 PMI

March 4
MY - BNM monetary policy statement (2% currently)
UK - BoE key rate announcement (0.5% currently)
EU - ECB key rate announcement (1% currently)
US - Fed to release Beige Book
EU - 4Qa09 GDP

March 5
MY - Jan10 external trade data
MY - BNM to release statement of accounts, foreign reserves as at Feb26
TH/TW/AU - Feb10 foreign reserve data
US - Jan10 pending home sales index, Feb10 employment data

A volatile week ahead with mix expectation on economic data, especially 4-5 March.

source: The Edge

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I can make you rich

File size is 24mb.

The SECRET.

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BIS - Bank for International Settlements
Imf - International Monetary Fund
BoE - Bank of England
CIC - China Investment Corporation
BoJ - Bank of Japan
RBA - Reserve Bank of Australia
FDIC - Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
GIC - Government of Singapore Investment Corporation
ECB - European Central Bank

TARP - Troubled Asset Relief Program
TLGP - Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program
ABCP - Asset backed commercial paper
HEL - Home Equity Loan
CMBS - Commercial mortgage backed security
RMBS - Residential mortgage backed security
CDS - credit default swap
CLO - Collateralized loan obligation
CDO - Collateralized debt obligation
CLN - Credit Linked note

Richard Fuld - Former Chairman & CEO of Lehman Brothers
Fred Goodwin - Former CEO of RBS
Ken Lewis - Former CEO, President, and Chairman of Bank of America
Bob Diamond - President of Barclays, CEO of Barclay Capital
Charles Prince - Former CEO and Chairman of Citigroup
Jamie Dimon - CEO & Chairman of JPM
Jean Claude Trichet - President of the European Central Bank
Joseph Eugene Stiglitz - American economist, professor at Columbia University. Recipient of Nobel Prize. Free market economist
Paul Krugman - American economist, columnist and author. Professor at Princeton University, Centenary professor at LSE. Nobel Prize recipient. Advocates Free markets
Mervyn King - Governor of the Bank of England
Dominique Strauss Kahn DSK - MD of the IMF
Marcel Rohner - Former Group CEO of UBS
Timothy Geithner - US Secretary of the Treasury | Former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Lawrence Henry Summers - American economist and the director of the White House's National Economic Council for President Barack Obama.
Paul Volcker - was the Chairman of the Federal Reserve under US Presidents Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. Currently chairman of the Economic Recovery Advisory Board under President Barak Obama
Henry Paulson - former US Treasury Secretary. Previously Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs
Ben Bernanke - current Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Republican)
Merrill Lynch - Stanley O'Neal -> John Thain

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1. raised interest rate it charges banks for emergency loans whilst borrowing costs for consumers or companies ramain unchange in response to improved financial market conditions. "The modifications are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy," it said.

2. It went to pains to draw the distinction between the discount rate and its target for overnight interbank rates, its main monetary policy tool, which remains unchanged near zero percent as a fragile U.S. economic recovery struggles to gain traction.

3. Fed's move came earlier than expected. Although increase in the discount rate does not mean that the Fed is ready to hike fed-funds rate, it does mean that the Fed is preparing the way. "The increase in the discount rate “does not mean that the Fed is ready to hike [the fed-funds rate] or has a set time for such a move. But it does mean that the Fed is preparing the way,” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. “This is very much a move to prepare markets and to test markets to see if they are ready to absorb a rate increase by putting the Fed’s lending vehicles back in a normal configuration,” he said.

4. Dollar is strengthening in response to the increase in discount rate sending commodities and gold lower.

Implications? My view

1. raising interest rate is a sequential process, market turns cautious and volatile. Investors should focus on core CPI and implied target rate.

2. In short-term, dollar is bullish. This does not defy the long term bear.

3. Increase in discount rate is a preemptive move to raise interest rate.

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15 Feb
JP - 4QGDP, forecast IPI for December
US - closed for President's Day

16 Feb
AUS - RBA to release Feb board metting minutes

17 Feb
JP - BOJ monetary policy meeting stars
SG - Jan electronics exports data
EU - December 09 trade balance data

18 Feb
JP - BOJ target rate announcement
HK - Jan unemployment rate
EU - Feb 2010 consumer confidence data
US - latest FOMC meeting minutes, latest housing starts, Jan PPI

19 Feb
MY - BNM to release foreign reserves, statement of accounts as at Feb 15
AUS - Central bank governor to appear before House of Representatives Committee
JP - BOJ to release 4Q GDP
TH - foreign reserves data as at Feb 12
EU - PMI manufacturing data for Feb
US - Jan CPI

Leading indicators are pointing to improved outlook and raising inflation concerns due to stimuli. China raised RRR for another 50bps just before a long holiday effective on 25th Feb. Outflow is expected and market probably will see further correction next week.

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8 Feb
JP - Dec 2009 trade figures

10 Feb
MY - Dec 2009 Industrial production and manufacturing sales figures
US - Dec 2009 trade balance
CH - Jan 2010 trade figures

11 Feb
US - Jan 2010 Initial jobless claims and retail figures

12 Feb
EU - Dec 2009 Industrial production figures and 4QGDP

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Expect quiet market as CNY near.

(source: The Edge Weekly)

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